I’m back! My sincere apologies. I have taken on what has become a full-time job as MLB Content Manager at Daily Fantasy Insider which has taken up a massive chunk of time since the MLB season has kicked off. That said, Double Up Sports is a huge passion of mine and now that I am settled at DFI I am thrilled to be back and providing daily MLB picks for my valued readers and subscribers! Without any more hesitation let’s get into tonight’s Free MLB pick!
Season Record: 2-3 Units: -0.84 units
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
MY PICK: RED SOX (-148) *Risking 1.48 units to win 1 unit*
Tonight the Boston Red Sox conclude their three-game set with the Chicago White Sox after the two teams have split the first two games of the series thus far. With the rubber match featuring Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz and the White Sox sending veteran right-hander Mike Pelfrey to the mound I am taking the Red Sox to take the series on the moneyline.
Full disclosure: I am fully aware of how the White Sox bats have fared against left-handed pitching this season. That couldn’t have been more evident than last night when they knocked their former ace Chris Sale around to the tune of ten hits and six runs (five earned) over 111 pitches in just five frames. That said, I am also fully aware of how Mike Pelfrey has fared over the last season and change. In 2016, Pelfrey was simply awful with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a 5.07 ERA and his 5.15 FIP confirmed that he deserved every bit of his fortune. This season, Pelfrey’s ERA has improved to 4.41, but that pesky FIP still sits at an even 5.00, indicating he has been somewhat fortunate to boast an ERA in the mid-4s. Pelfrey has been particularly vulnerable to left-handed bats and with the return of Pablo Sandoval from the DL he could see as many as five lefties in that Boston lineup tonight. Pelfrey has yielded a 5.61 FIP, 1.71 HR/9, 36.4% hard contact and a 40% fly-ball rate to left-handed hitters this season. With Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago sporting a 1.19 HR coefficient (with 1.00 being league average) to a left-handed hitter’s pull field in right, the hard contact combined with the elevated fly-ball and FIP figures lend me to believe that Pelfrey could be in trouble in the home run department tonight.
Drew Pomeranz takes the hill for the Red Sox this evening looking to keep the damage to a minimum like he has over his last two starts. He has only went a combined ten innings in those two starts, but he has allowed just three earned runs on nine hits and three walks while striking out 17. He sports a rather large 27.7% strikeout clip to right-handed hitters and he could very well face nine of them tonight should the White Sox stack righties against him like they did to Sale last night. Interestingly, Pomeranz is surrendering less hard contact and fewer HR/9 against right-handed hitters than he has lefties this season, however it should be noted he has been rather unfortunate against lefties. Nonetheless, with a FIP of 4.10 and an xFIP of 3.74 against right-handed bats to go along with that huge strikeout clip I am confident Pomeranz can limit the damage once again tonight.
I believe the Red Sox have the offense to knock Pelfrey around tonight while Pomeranz should be able to limit damage against the White Sox offense. Add it all up and I am rolling with the Red Sox tonight to take the series on the moneyline.